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夏春:美国增加关税带来全球贸易碎片化,最坏损失相当于日德GDP之和_我的网站

游戏人生

一 |     

周二拜登宣布向180亿美元中国商品,包括电动汽车、半导体、太阳能和电池,加征关税。    Ecuador was rocked by a series of car bombings and the hostage-taking of more than 50 law enforcement officers inside various prisons Thursday, just weeks after the country was shaken by the assassination of a presidential candidate. Ecuador's National Police reported no injuries resulting from the four explosions in Quito, the capital, and in a province that borders Peru, while Interior Minister Juan Zapata said none of the law enforcement officers taken hostage in six different prisons had been injured.Authorities said the brazen actions were the response of criminal groups to the relocation of various inmates and other measures taken by the country's corrections system. The crimes happened three weeks after the slaying of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio.
ECUADOR-CRIME-BOMBING              
Policemen inspect the wreckage of a car after it exploded in Quito on August 31, 2023. A car bomb exploded in a commercial area of Ecuador's capital without causing casualties, police said, as the country experiences an increase in violence linked to drug trafficking.                    RODRIGO BUENDIA/AFP via Getty             
The corrections system, known as the National Service for Attention to Persons Deprived of Liberty, has in recent years lost control of large prisons, which have been the site of violent riots resulting in dozens of deaths. It has taken to transferring inmates to manage gang-related disputes.      In Quito, the first bomb went off Wednesday night in an area where an office of the country's corrections system was previously located. The second explosion in the capital happened early Thursday outside the agency's current base.Ecuador National Police Gen. Pablo Ramírez, the national director of anti-drug investigations, told reporters on Thursday that police found gas cylinders, fuel, fuses and blocks of dynamite among the debris of the crime scenes in Quito, where the first vehicle to explode was a small car and the second was a pickup truck.                 Authorities said gas tanks were used in the explosions in the El Oro communities of Casacay and Bella India.The fire department in the city of Cuenca, where one of the prisons in which law enforcement officers are being held hostage is located, reported that an explosive device went off Thursday night. The department did not provide additional details beyond saying the explosion damaged a car.Zapata said seven of prison hostages are police officers and the rest are prison guards. In a video shared on social media, which Zapata identified as authentic, a police officer who identifies himself as Lt. Alonso Quintana asks authorities "not to make decisions that violate the rights of persons deprived of their liberty." He can be seen surrounded by a group of police and corrections officers and says that about 30 people are being held by the inmates.Ecuadorian authorities attribute the country's spike in violence over the past three years to a power vacuum triggered by the killing in 2020 of Jorge Zambrano, alias "Rasquiña" or "JL," the leader of the local Los Choneros gang. Members carry out contract killings, run extortion operations, move and sell drugs, and rule prisons.                      Los Choneros and similar groups linked to Mexican and Colombian cartels are fighting over drug-trafficking routes and control of territory, including within detention facilities, where at least 400 inmates have died since 2021.Villavicencio, the presidential candidate, had a famously tough stance on organized crime and corruption. He was killed Aug. 9 at the end of a political rally in Quito despite having a security detail that included police and bodyguards.He had accused Los Choneros and its imprisoned current leader Adolfo Macías, alias "Fito," whom he linked to Mexico's Sinaloa cartel, of threatening him and his campaign team days before the assassination.Ecuador's Security Secretary, Wagner Bravo, told FMundo radio station that six prisoners who were relocated may have been involved in Villavicencio's slaying.The mayor of Quito, Pabel Muñoz, told the Teleamazonas television station that he was hoping "for justice to act quickly, honestly and forcefully.""We are not going to give up. May peace, calm and security prevail among the citizens," Muñoz said.The country's National Police tallied 3,568 violent deaths in the first six months of this year, far more than the 2,042 reported during the same period in 2022. That year ended with 4,600 violent deaths, the country's highest in history and double the total in 2021.                      The port city of Guayaquil has been the epicenter of violence, but Esmeraldas, a Pacific coastal city, is also considered one of the country's most dangerous. There, six government vehicles were set on fire earlier this week, according to authorities.                                 
经过测算,这些关税大约会使得美国的通胀同比增长一个基点,也就是0.01个百分点,对GDP的拖累也同样是一个基点,都可以忽略不计。因为4月通胀下行,市场预期9月降息,美股创出新高。影响不大的主要原因就是之前对中国电动汽车征收的25%的关税,使得原本中国对美国出口就很少。去年中国向美国出口了大约3.7亿美元的电动车,欧盟向美国出口了近 75 亿美元。中国仅占美国进口电动汽车的2%。德国、韩国和日本的占比分别为22%21%18%

二 | 采取加征关税减少竞争的方法来保护电动汽车,只会让美国汽车制造商进步缓慢。而且美国现在严重依赖中国生产的电池,加征关税只会使得整车成本更贵,美国想买电动车的老百姓就只能支付更高价格了。在海外市场,中国电动车都可以凭借价格和技术取胜。美国车将一步步被边缘化,美国新能源产业会越来越落后。2020年大选,拜登猛烈抨击特朗普向中国3000亿美元进口商品的征税,严重伤害了美国,因为95%以上的关税都是由美国企业和家庭承担的。但拜登上任后,继承了这些关税,目的就是遏制中国的发展。

三 | 而这一次加税主要目的是讨好摇摆州的选民。最新民调显示拜登在六个摇摆州的五个都落后特朗普。

四 | 但是特朗普上台后,大概率会向所有国家加征关税,而且主要是针对中国。这几年贸易战打下来,美国经济学家都一致反对,新研究显示过去中美贸易顺畅时,美国家庭和企业都直接受惠,贸易战让大家直接受伤。即使是过去声称中国商品造成美国制造业工人失业的经济学家,也完全改变了态度。

拜登加征关税的行为,也引来了IMF发言人Julie Kozack的批评。她表示,美国针对中国的贸易限制措施可能会扭曲贸易和投资,使得供应链碎片化并引发报复行动。她说:“这种碎片化可能会让全球经济付出高昂的代价。”IMF确定2023年全球贸易限制约为3000项,高于2019年的1000项,在地缘政治集团严重分裂的最坏情况下,这可能会使全球经济产出减少约7%,相当于减少了日本和德国GDP的总和。
“关于关税,我们的观点是,美国最好保持其开放的贸易政策,这对其经济表现至关重要,”Kozack说,“我们还鼓励美国和中国共同努力,找到一个解决方案,解决加剧两国贸易紧张局势的根本问题。”
现在为拜登或者特朗普欢呼的选民,将来都会发现,是他们自己葬送了美国的就业和发展机会!

Current article:http://cuozubeishenjingli.cfd/sefqn/20260826/3120410.html

Published on:21:49:57


 
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